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Course : Build and manage a sales forecasting system

Formalize and exploit forecasts based on historical data

Practical course - 2d - 14h00 - Ref. PPV
Price : 1360 € E.T.

Build and manage a sales forecasting system

Formalize and exploit forecasts based on historical data


New course

How do you produce reliable forecasts in an unstable environment, with data that is sometimes incomplete or volatile? This training course proposes a structured approach: analyze the past, model trends, choose the appropriate method, anticipate variations and monitor deviations. Alternating technical inputs, case studies and analytical exercises prepare you for immediate implementation.


INTER
IN-HOUSE
CUSTOM

Practical course in person or remote class
Disponible en anglais, à la demande

Ref. PPV
  2d - 14h00
1360 € E.T.

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How do you produce reliable forecasts in an unstable environment, with data that is sometimes incomplete or volatile? This training course proposes a structured approach: analyze the past, model trends, choose the appropriate method, anticipate variations and monitor deviations. Alternating technical inputs, case studies and analytical exercises prepare you for immediate implementation.


Teaching objectives
At the end of the training, the participant will be able to:
Analyze sales histories to identify trends and seasonal patterns
Detect and correct anomalies in time series
Select a forecasting method adapted to the product/market context
Build a sales forecasting dashboard
Interpret variances between forecasts and actuals to adjust plans
Simulate different scenarios and measure their impact on business

Intended audience
Supply chain, production and purchasing professionals involved in setting up or improving a forecasting process.

Prerequisites
Mastery of Excel fundamentals and basic notions of data analysis.

Practical details
Hands-on work
Historical analyses, anomaly detection, model selection, evolution simulations, construction of indicators and an operational dashboard.
Teaching methods
Methodological input. Active and participative pedagogy. Sharing practices and exchanges.

Course schedule

1
Analyze historical data to understand sales dynamics

  • Explore data: sources, quality, cleansing
  • Visualize time series and identify initial trends
  • Identify structural effects: seasonality, cycles, disruptions
Hands-on work
Diagnose a history and formulate initial forecasting hypotheses.

2
Stabilize and make reliable data before forecasting

  • Apply smoothing techniques (moving averages, exponential smoothing)
  • Detect and correct abnormal values
  • Qualify the stability of a series to choose the right forecasting method
Hands-on work
Correct a disturbed series and produce a usable stabilized version.

3
Identify trends and suitable models

  • Analyze short/long-term trends (regression, linear models)
  • Compare possible models (linear, non-linear, ARIMA)
  • Select the model best suited to the product/market context
Hands-on work
Select a model from a product case and justify the decision.

4
Produce reliable quantitative forecasts

  • Apply a quantitative or qualitative forecasting method
  • Structuring a forecast schedule and associated indicators
  • Evaluating forecast performance (MAPE, bias, errors)
Hands-on work
Make a complete forecast and interpret the errors obtained.

5
Track sales and manage variances

  • Building a forecasting dashboard
  • Measure variances between forecasts and actuals
  • Identify skid signals and their possible causes
  • Define realistic corrective actions
Hands-on work
Analyze a dashboard and propose an action plan.

6
Integrating external factors and seasonality

  • Analyze the impact of special events (promotions, out-of-stock items, markets)
  • Calculate seasonal coefficients (fixed, sliding)
  • Adjust forecasts according to external variations
Hands-on work
Integrate a promotional event into a product forecast.

7
Anticipate reversals and simulate scenarios

  • Identify key trend reversal indicators
  • Building development scenarios: risks, opportunities
  • Measure the cost and impact of corrective or remedial actions
Hands-on work
Simulate development scenarios and choose the most likely one

8
Synthesize and anchor the forecasting process

  • Formalize a forecasting process adapted to the company's needs
  • Integrate the tools used (Excel or internal systems)
  • Define a plan for continuous improvement of forecasts
Hands-on work
Design a mini forecasting process that can be directly reused on the job.
PARTICIPANTS
Supply chain, production and purchasing professionals involved in setting up or improving a forecasting process.

PREREQUISITES
Mastery of Excel fundamentals and basic notions of data analysis.

TRAINER QUALIFICATIONS
The experts leading the training are specialists in the covered subjects. They have been approved by our instructional teams for both their professional knowledge and their teaching ability, for each course they teach. They have at least five to ten years of experience in their field and hold (or have held) decision-making positions in companies.

ASSESSMENT TERMS
The trainer evaluates each participant’s academic progress throughout the training using multiple choice, scenarios, hands-on work and more.
Participants also complete a placement test before and after the course to measure the skills they’ve developed.

TEACHING AIDS AND TECHNICAL RESOURCES
• The main teaching aids and instructional methods used in the training are audiovisual aids, documentation and course material, hands-on application exercises and corrected exercises for practical training courses, case studies and coverage of real cases for training seminars.
• At the end of each course or seminar, ORSYS provides participants with a course evaluation questionnaire that is analysed by our instructional teams.
• A check-in sheet for each half-day of attendance is provided at the end of the training, along with a course completion certificate if the trainee attended the entire session.

TERMS AND DEADLINES
Registration must be completed 24 hours before the start of the training.

ACCESSIBILITY FOR PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES
Do you need special accessibility accommodations? Contact Mrs. Fosse, Disability Manager, at psh-accueil@orsys.fr to review your request and its feasibility.